The Bankwatch

Tracking the consumer evolution of financial services

Economic forecasts for Canada – latest June 2009

Here is a quick summary GDP forecasts for North American planners.

Courtesy of CBC here is the summary of the banks and Bank of Canada GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010.  For me the open question remains to what extent 2010 is wishful thinking.  The other and related problem with the graph is that GDP growth is calculated on a moving base.

So the other way to read this is that even if the 2010 forecasts are correct, the absolute dollar GDP at December 2010 will not have achieved the level of Dec 2008, or 2 years previous.

GDP2growth

The IMF forecast for US GDP is here, and 2010 is barely in positive territory so that economy is still weak till beyond 2011:

4. The staff’s outlook remains for a gradual recovery, consistent with past international experience of financial and housing market crises. The combination of financial strains and ongoing adjustments in the housing and labor markets is expected to restrain growth for some time, with a solid recovery projected to emerge only in mid-2010. Against this background, GDP is expected to contract by 2½ percent in 2009, followed by a modest ¾ percent expansion in 2010 on a year-average basis (on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, -1 ½ percent in 2009 and 1 ¾ percent in 2010). Meanwhile, growing economic slack—with unemployment peaking at close to 10 percent in 2010—would push core inflation to very low levels, with the headline CPI expected to decrease by ½ percent in 2009 and increase by 1 percent in 2010.

And Europe here:

Written by Colin Henderson

June 15, 2009 at 15:29

Posted in economy

Tagged with , ,

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