The Bankwatch

Tracking the consumer evolution of financial services

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly | which is your bank?

In this video commentary on the US Banks results they note that while large profits are announced, any parts of the business related to the US consumer consumer is flat. This includes all retail banking and credit cards. The only bright spots are the fee based revenue from the investment banking units, hence JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs results, although poor old Citi did not even make it there.

One quarter does not make or break anything in banking in and of itself. However the predictions of Roubini and Baker linked below are playing out as expected, so which banks are going to wait it out and hope for the best, and which will challenge and break out?

Citi and BofA fail to allay fears | FT

The problem with Citi it is not firing on any cylinders, at least with the others they are at least firing on one cylinder.

Relevance to Bankwatch:
The word ‘bank’ is quite generalised. On this blog I focus on retail and commercial (small ‘c) banking. I care little about investment banking. Looking at the US this week, the US consumer base is still being hit with ever increasing unemployment, and there is no indication that will change soon. Europe and Japan are no better. I go back to an earlier post about ‘recovery’ which is a word used too loosely by economists and politicians. What will the future look like? What will recovery look like and what does that mean for your bank?

While technical recovery meaning positive GDP growth may occur later this year or earlier next, that is of little interest here. That ‘recovery’ is driven by Government deficit spending in all major economies. What matters is the state of the consumer, their aggregate confidence level, and frankly their income level with which they choose to save, pay down debt or spend.

I will repeat that banks as they move into this post ‘recovery’ world will do well to consider what it will take to succeed in that world. James Baker worried about Zombie banks back in March. We are beginning to see the evolution of zombies, financial utilities who operate under government supervision and ownership with little benefit if any to people or the economy.

If it is not going to look like the pre recession world and if we accept that it will be a relatively smaller, more careful world with far less money velocity, then how should your bank adapt products, services, service and business model to thrive?

Written by Colin Henderson

July 17, 2009 at 15:12

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