The Bankwatch

Tracking the consumer evolution of financial services

OECD composite leading indicators show new growth momentum

For the economists.  OECD report on generally positive growth indicators everywhere.  There is a graph for most countries below and if unclear, here is a

pdf PR_Tables (excel)

of the graphs.

The key is getting above 100 and staying there.  100 = steady state, no growth or drops.  Note the large drop in 2008.

_____________________________________________________________

OECD composite leading indicators show new growth momentum

OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to an increasing pace of economic expansion in November 2010.

The CLIs for China, the United States, France and Japan show clear signs of accelerating economic activity, while the one for Russia points strongly to steady expansion.

The German CLI is unchanged from the previous month at a rate above 100 and should therefore be interpreted as a sign of a continued, stable pace of expansion. Signs of stabilization in the pace of economic expansion are also present in the CLIs for Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom and India.

In Brazil, the CLI continues to point to a slowdown in economic activity.

Regained growth momentum in the OECD area Regained growth momentum in China
clip_image002 clip_image004
Regained growth momentum in the United States Stable pace of expansion in the Euro area
clip_image006 clip_image008

The above graphs show for each country the outlook for economic activity based on the CLIs. CLIs attempt to indicate turning points in economic activity approximately six months in advance. Shaded areas represent observed downswings (measured from peak to trough) in the de-trended industrial production (the reference series for economic activity).

Methodological Notes:

The CLI methodological notes are available at: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/47/44728410.pdf

Access data:

CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

Contacts:

For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD’s Media Relations Division on

(33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail news.contact@oecd.org.

For technical questions contact stat.contact@oecd.org

Next release: 14 February 2011

Regained growth momentum in Japan Regained growth momentum in France
clip_image010 clip_image012
Stable pace of expansion in Germany Stable pace of expansion in Italy
clip_image014 clip_image016
Stable pace of expansion in the United Kingdom Slowdown in Brazil
clip_image018 clip_image020
Stable pace of expansion in Canada Stable pace of expansion in India
clip_image022 clip_image024
Expansion in Russia
clip_image026 Note: The horizontal line 100 shows the long-term trend in industrial production (the reference series). Expansion denotes a CLI increasing above 100; downturn a CLI decreasing but still above 100; slowdown a CLI decreasing below 100; recovery a CLI increasing but below 100.

Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators

Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted Change from previous month Year on Year change Growth cycle outlook**
(long term average =100) (points) (points)
2010 2010 Latest month
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
OECD Area 102.3 102.3 102.4 102.6 102.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.9 regained growth momentum
Euro Area 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 stable pace of expansion
Major Five Asia* 101.3 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 regained growth momentum
Major Seven 102.3 102.3 102.4 102.7 103.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.3 regained growth momentum
Canada 102.1 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 stable pace of expansion
France 101.9 101.8 101.9 102.1 102.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -1.5 regained growth momentum
Japan 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.0 103.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 5.2 regained growth momentum
Germany 105.0 105.0 104.9 104.9 104.9 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 stable pace of expansion
Italy 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 stable pace of expansion
United Kingdom 102.5 102.3 102.2 102.2 102.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 stable pace of expansion
United States 101.6 101.6 101.8 102.2 102.7 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 4.2 regained growth momentum
Brazil 99.9 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 slowdown
China 100.9 100.6 100.7 101.0 101.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 -2.3 regained growth momentum
India 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.1 101.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 stable pace of expansion
Russia 102.3 103.0 103.7 104.5 105.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 7.7 expansion

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

** Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below 100), recovery (increase below 100). CLI data for 29 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

Table 2: Historical Performance of CLI and Recent Cyclical Turning Points in the Reference Series

CLI Historical Performance Recent Turning Point dates in the reference series
Lead at all turning points Dates marked with (P) are provisional turning points
start year mean st. dev. trough peak trough peak trough peak
OECD Area 1961 6 3.5 Jan 2002 Feb 2008 May 2009 P
Euro Area 1963 7 3.1 Jul 2003 Mar 2008 May 2009 P
Major Five Asia* 1983 8 5.8 Dec 2001 May 2004 Jun 2005 Jan 2008 Mar 2009 P Apr 2010 P
Major Seven 1959 6 3.7 Jan 2002 Mar 2008 May 2009 P
Canada 1956 8 3.7 Nov 2001 Aug 2007 Jun 2009 P
France 1962 7 4.9 Jul 2003 Feb 2008 Apr 2009 P
Japan 1959 6 4.5 Dec 2001 Mar 2008 Apr 2009 P Jun 2010 P
Germany 1961 5 4.0 Jul 2003 Mar 2008 May 2009 P
Italy 1973 7 5.8 Feb 2005 Mar 2008 May 2009 P
United Kingdom 1958 7 5.2 Apr 2003 Apr 2004 Aug 2005 Feb 2008 Jun 2009 P
United States 1955 5 3.4 Dec 2001 Feb 2008 May 2009 P
Brazil 1989 5 2.3 Jun 2003 Oct 2004 Aug 2006 May 2008 Apr 2009 P Apr 2010 P
China 1990 6 4.9 Jan 2002 Jan 2008 Feb 2009 P Jan 2010 P
India 1994 4 2.7 Apr 2003 Mar 2007 Feb 2009 P Feb 2010 P
Russia 1993 3 2.3 Jul 2002 Jun 2004 Sep 2005 Apr 2008 May 2009 P

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea

Technorati Tags: ,,

Written by Colin Henderson

January 10, 2011 at 22:12

Posted in Uncategorized

%d bloggers like this: