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What is the likelihood of genuine secular outcomes in the ‘Dominoes’ | Egypt could be the bellweather

This chart from the BBC.  Some revealing and counterintuitive information. 

Three other countries that leap out here are Algeria, Morocco, and Libya.  However it is also interesting that Libya is the lowest in internet users.  Does this mean they will be less likely to resist Ghadafi?

For that matter as pointed out today by Roubini in a piece in the FT we do need to be careful in what is wished for.  He notes the history of populous uprisings to date within the middle east has almost always resulted in greater Muslim extremist views and not the hoped for secular and populous government, that Egyptians seem to genuinely desire.  Think Iran, Lebanon, Gaza and to a lesser extent the shifts within Turkey over the last 2 years away from secularism.

But the recent experience of “free elections” and “democracy” in the Middle East has been disappointing: the Iranian revolution has led to an authoritarian and oppressive regime controlled by Islamic fundamentalists; Gaza’s election led to the rise of the radical Hamas; Lebanon has seen the rise of Hizbollah, a radical and well-armed state within a state; and the US invasion of Iraq has brought civil war and an unstable pseudo-democracy now increasingly at risk of being controlled by radical and Shia groups

All the more reason for the US and Europe to get further ahead in terms of pressure to move Egypt to a realistic transitional government as quickly as possible.


Written by Colin Henderson

February 1, 2011 at 12:08

Posted in Uncategorized

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