The Bankwatch

This piece from the insightful Stratfor summarises the middle east situation.  Libya is sad but the key remains in the rich central oil states.  Watch for shifts there.  The $37Bn payment to Saudis is consequential in this debate.

Watch for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States reaction.

Stratfor

Colin Chapman: George, what are the potential geopolitical implications of these events on the rest of the Middle East and beyond?

George: The situation in North Africa has for the moment clarified itself. You’ve got a military junta running Egypt. It’s promised elections and we’ll see if they happen. Tunisia has settled into an unsettled state and of course we have the chaos in Libya. But Libya is simply not that important a country to have broader geopolitical implications. The most important things are happening are happening in Bahrain. And they’re happening in Bahrain right now because Bahrain is both connected by a causeway to Saudi Arabia, has a large Shiite population, a Sunni ruling family, and is a port for the U.S. 5th Fleet. Everything comes together.