Danger in simple extrapolations of the future
Here is a quick refresh for long time readers. Once upon a time, many years ago, O’Reilly summed up the post 2001 tech crash revitalisation as Web 2.0.
At the time, in 2005, it seemed so clear. Yet when we study the 2nd column, which was supposed to be the future, it is a very weak picture with blogging, Napster and participation as leading lights.
Publishing –> Participation –> oops! Facebook and Twitter kind of blew that extrapolation.