The Bankwatch

Tracking the consumer evolution of financial services

BBC- Fertility rate- ‘Jaw-dropping’ global crash in children


This graphic from the report can be summarized that the world population is dropping everywhere except Africa and Middle East.

Here is the UN report behind the headline. Real wonk stuff with tons of statistics.

Written by Colin Henderson

July 15, 2020 at 07:46

Posted in Uncategorized

Facebook suspended by all Canadian Banks


in a move that happens to highlight the ‘Canadian way”, Canadas banks collectively suspended use of Facebook in July.

Canadian lenders Royal Bank of Canada (TO:RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TO:TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (TO:BNS), Bank of Montreal (TO:BMO), National Bank of Canada (TO:NA) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TO:CM) all said they will pause advertising on Facebook platforms in July.
Desjardins Group, Canada’s largest federation of credit unions, also said on its website on Thursday it will pause advertising on Facebook and Instagram for the month “barring any exceptional situations where we need to communicate with our members or clients.”
Most cited their commitments to inclusion and diversity.

Reuters Canada

By Nichola Saminather
TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada’s biggest lenders confirmed on Friday they had joined a widespread boycott of Facebook Inc (O:FB) begun by U.S. civil rights groups seeking to pressure the world’s largest social media platform to take concrete steps to block hate speech.

More than 400 brands have pulled advertising on Facebook in response to the “Stop Hate for Profit” campaign, begun after the death of George Floyd, a Black man who died in police custody in Minneapolis on May 25.

Canadian lenders Royal Bank of Canada (TO:RY), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TO:TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (TO:BNS), Bank of Montreal (TO:BMO), National Bank of Canada (TO:NA) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TO:CM) all said they will pause advertising on Facebook platforms in July.

Desjardins Group, Canada’s largest federation of credit unions, also said on its website on Thursday it will pause advertising on Facebook and Instagram for the month “barring any exceptional situations where we need to communicate with our members or clients.”

Most cited their commitments to inclusion and diversity.
Facebook has opened itself up to a civil rights audit and has banned 250 white supremacist organizations from Facebook and Instagram, a spokesman said by email. Its investments in artificial intelligence mean it finds nearly 90% of hate speech it takes action on before users report it, he added.
BMO said it is continuing its “ongoing dialogue with Facebook on changes they can make to their platforms to reduce the spread of hate speech.”

RBC said one way to help clients and communities is to stand against “misinformation and hate speech, which only make systemic racism more pervasive.”

Written by Colin Henderson

July 3, 2020 at 14:15

Posted in Uncategorized

A Crisis Like No Other


An Uncertain Recovery

Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 61⁄2 percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. 

For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditions—which have eased following the release of the April 2020 WEO—will remain broadly at current levels. Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. 

The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.

Written by Colin Henderson

July 1, 2020 at 13:43

Posted in Uncategorized

Shopify- simple for people and keeping the complexity hidden


Forbes

New Data Shows Shopify Was A Godsend For Mom And Pop During Coronavirus – Forbes

68-year-old Jan Buerge was days away from losing everything. For 35 years, she has run World’s Window in Kansas City, a store that sells artisanal items from around the world. In March, she was forced to close her doors because of coronavirus.

But she didn’t give up. She just needed a plan, and fast. She snapped pictures of her remaining items. And quickly got them online with the help of her husband and nephew. Within three days, business was booming. Buerge was shipping baskets made from South African telephone wires and metal plaques made in Haiti to customers around the nation.

Buerge didn’t do it alone. As I’ll show you, a once “hated” stock has been a savior for millions of mom-and-pop shops across America. It handles all the “plumbing” of online selling… Like payments, shipping, and marketing… and it’s poised to rocket higher in the years ahead…

I’m Talking About Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify helps entrepreneurs create and manage their own online stores. Its easy-to-use website rescued tens of millions of these small businesses, just like Buerge’s.

In fact, merchants with Shopify stores recouped 94% of lost in-person sales with online orders. So for every dollar lost to coronavirus, these businesses recovered 94c thanks to Shopify.

And have you checked out Shopify’s stock recently? It’s soared around 90% since the lockdowns started, as you can see here:

Source: RiskHedge Source: RiskHedge

Today Shopify Is a Wall Street Darling

But a couple of years ago, it was totally hated. Think about what Shopify was trying to achieve… run an online marketplace where smaller businesses could sell their goods. That’s stepping into Amazon’s (AMZN) territory. And how could a tiny startup compete with an 800lb. gorilla like Amazon?

Most investors thought Shopify would be out of business in a year or two. But here’s the thing: folks who bought Shopify in 2016, when it was out-of-favor, are sitting on 3,500% gains today. It was the perfect “hated” stock play.

Source: RiskHedge Source: RiskHedge

How did Shopify Compete with Amazon?

Selling goods online is a tough business. You have to build the website, rent servers to handle all the internet traffic, and collect payments. You have to ship your products, accept returns, and run marketing campaigns. Just setting up an online store is a full-time job and will set you back thousands of dollars at a bare minimum.

So most small businesses looking to sell online chose to partner with Amazon. In fact, roughly two-thirds of goods sold on Amazon come from independent sellers.

Amazon handles all the not-so-fun parts of selling online… but it comes at a cost. Selling on Amazon is like placing your products on another retailer’s shelves. It’s almost impossible to build your brand, and the online gorilla takes a chunk of your sales.

Shopify is the anti-Amazon. It gives businesses the tools to build their own online store. Think of Shopify like an invisible partner that allows you to build your own brands.

You wouldn’t know it from looking at their websites, but The Economist, Penguin Books, Unilever, Red Bull, Heinz, Budweiser, Pepsi, and Nestle are all examples of online stores powered by Shopify.

And Now Shopify Runs Websites for Over One Million Mom-and-Pop Shops

Here’s how it works: The company offers a simple tool that helps anyone set up a custom online store for as little as $29/month. Shopify can even fulfill your orders, which means it holds your inventory at its warehouses and ships your products. You don’t have to maintain software or servers. You don’t need to hire expensive programmers or be into coding yourself. You don’t have to bother with shipping.

In minutes, you can have a full-fledged online store that’s running on autopilot under your business name, just like Amazon. It’s like getting a fully furnished retail store with trained sales clerks all for a few bucks. You just put your products on the shelves, hang a storefront sign, lean back, and watch sales come in.

And Shopify’s business is booming. In 2012, it had just 42,000 merchants. Today, more than 1,000,000 businesses around the globe have set up an online store with Shopify. Businesses sold $60 billion worth of goods through its platform last year. For perspective, that’s a 600% jump in sales since it was “hated” back in 2015.

And get this: Shopify is now the world’s 15th largest retailer—online or offline. It sits just behind DIY superstore Lowe’s.

Shopify Is Opening Up the World for Entrepreneurs

Take Jan Buerge and her artisanal store for example. Only folks living in Kansas can visit her store. But with her Shopify-powered store, now she can sell to folks all over America. By handling all the “plumbing” of online selling like… payments, shipping, and marketing, it leaves Jan free to focus on finding unique artisans around the world.

Shopify is the world’s most disruptive retailer that most investors aren’t paying attention to. This is a stock to own for the long term as it cements itself as the “anti-Amazon.”

Get my report “The Great Disruptors: 3 Breakthrough Stocks Set to Double Your Money”. These stocks will hand you 100% gains as they disrupt whole industries. Get your free copy here.

Shopify inks partnership with Walmart as it prepares to battle Amazon.com – Yahoo Canada Finance

Written by Colin Henderson

June 24, 2020 at 09:12

Posted in Uncategorized

Fed Implementation notes 2020-06-09


fomc_fed-20200610

fed notes: my take — continue QE at same pace

  • Financial conditions improved
  • Monitor economy
  • No action – back to the markets to evaluate

June 10, 2020

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Share The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressure and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued June 10, 2020

Written by Colin Henderson

June 11, 2020 at 07:03

Posted in Uncategorized

New report highlights threats to uniquely Canadian plants and animals


New report highlights threats to uniquely Canadian plants and animals

June 4, 2020

“The consequence of our failure to protect these endemic species is extinction.”

Canada is home to over 300 different plant and animal species that live nowhere else on Earth. Unfortunately, the first comprehensive survey of these uniquely Canadian species shows that many could be vulnerable to extinction.

These are the findings of a new report by the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) and NatureServe Canada. Entitled Ours to save: The distribution, status and conservation needs of Canada’s national endemic species, the report will be released to mark Canadian Environment Week. To see the report and associated maps, visit http://www.natureconservancy.ca/ourstosave.

The organizations collaborated with experts across the country to catalogue Canada’s own species. It is being called a critical step in stemming global biodiversity loss.

The report identifies 308 plant and animal species, subspecies and varieties that are endemic to Canada, meaning they are only found here. Many are already at risk nationally and of global conservation concern. Identifying these species and the places where they live is an essential effort in protecting them from extinction. Mammals listed include eastern wolf, which lives in Algonquin Park, and the high Arctic’s Peary caribou. Birds include a unique subspecies of northern saw-whet owl that lives in BC and Harris’s sparrow, the only songbird that breeds exclusively in Canada. Invertebrates, such as the tiny Maritime ringlet butterfly, make up almost half of the species listed in the report. A variety of flowering plants are also included, such as Gulf of St. Lawrence aster and Lake Louise arnica.

The highest numbers of plants and animals that are unique to Canada are found in British Columbia, Quebec, Alberta and Yukon. The report also identifies 27 key concentrations of endemic species that occur in every province and territory, including within the Avalon Peninsula (NL), north shore of Prince Edward Island, St. Lawrence River Freshwater Estuary, Waterton, Vancouver Island and the Mackenzie Delta. Most of these species need more conservation efforts.

The results of this report will be used by NCC and other groups, individuals and landowners to prioritize conservation actions and to inspire public support for species and habitat protection in Canada.

Quotes

“No other nation can protect this group of all-Canadian species. Their conservation is completely up to Canadians. Protecting these species is Canada’s priority in the fight against global biodiversity loss. The consequence of our failure to conserve them is their extinction.” – Dan Kraus, senior conservation biologist, Nature Conservancy of Canada

“Many of Canada’s national endemic species have restricted ranges, which makes them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss, climate change and invasive species. This report provides decision-makers with critical information in understanding where conservation investments could be directed in order to safeguard these uniquely Canadian species.” – Patrick Henry, executive director, NatureServe Canada

Provincial breakdown of Canada’s endemic species:

British Columbia: 105
Quebec: 57
Alberta: 54
Yukon: 43
Newfoundland and Labrador 40
Saskatchewan: 36
Northwest Territories: 32

Manitoba: 31
Nunavut: 29
Nova Scotia: 28
Ontario: 28
New Brunswick: 17
Prince Edward Island: 7
Images

Images of various endemic species can be found at http://www.natureconservancy.ca/ourstosave.

About

The Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) is the nation’s leading not-for-profit, private land conservation organization, working to protect our most important natural areas and the species they sustain. Since 1962, NCC and its partners have helped to protect 14 million hectares (35 million acres), coast to coast to coast. To learn more, visit http://www.natureconservancy.ca.

NatureServe Canada functions as a network of provincial and territorial Conservation Data Centres (CDCs) to develop, manage and distribute authoritative information critical to the conservation of Canada’s biodiversity. Data held by NatureServe Canada are widely used by federal and provincial agencies, private industry, researchers and conservation organizations to improve the management, use and conservation of biological resources in Canada. To learn more, visit http://www.natureserve.ca.

Learn More
Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/NCC_CNC | twitter.com/NCC_CNCMedia
Find us on Facebook

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Media Contact:
Andrew Holland
National Media Relations Director
Office: 1-877-231-4400 | Mobile: 506-260-0469
andrew.holland@natureconservancy.ca

Patrick Henry
Executive Director
NatureServe Canada
613-986-1535
phenry@natureserve.ca

Written by Colin Henderson

June 4, 2020 at 08:51

Posted in Uncategorized

Dengue fever introduces a new complication in Indonesia during COVID-19 battle


Dengue fever introduces a new complication in Indonesia during the COVID-19 battle.

I have heard of this fever but only in Asia. it is mosquito borne.  according to wikipdia, About 390 million people are infected a year and approximately 40,000 die.[5][6] annually.

Dengue complicates Southeast Asia’s coronavirus fight
Tropical disease presents health care systems in region with a two-front war

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Dengue-complicates-Southeast-Asia-s-coronavirus-fight

People cover their faces as a neighborhood in Jakarta is sprayed with insecticide to kill mosquitoes, which carry dengue fever, on March 23. © AP
KOYA JIBIKI, Nikkei staff writer
May 27, 2020 18:01 JST
JAKARTA — Southeast Asian countries are bracing for possible outbreaks of infectious diseases that show symptoms similar to those of the novel coronavirus ahead of the rainy season. Treatments for these seasonal infections are very different from those for COVID-19, complicating the work of front-line medical workers.

As of May 8, there were 53,660 cases of dengue fever in Indonesia. Infections are rising at a faster pace than last year. In 2019, Southeast Asia’s most populous country had 137,761 dengue fever infections, more than double the previous year, according to the country’s Health Ministry

Written by Colin Henderson

May 27, 2020 at 05:39

Posted in Uncategorized

A Banking crisis product behind the financing of the US Healthcare system


During the 2008 Banking crisis, one created by investment bankers loomed large – Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDO).

They inner workings of these products created by spreadsheet junkies (not real bankers imho) was to create a debt product for sale that comprised a mix of A, B, n and junk mortgages. The key was the junk component made up of mortgages issued by likes of Wells Fargo with little or no diligence and which had little or no chance of being repaid on a normal regular payment schedule.

Fast forward to recent events (before covid-19) and similar tools have been used by likes of KKR to fund purchase of US Health Care companies. The same bundling approach of debt tranches from top tier to junk is used and the resultant product gets a top tier rating and interest rate despite containing junk bonds.

This is where the perfect storm comes in. In one exam KKR funded Envision, a $10 bn purchase with CLO. Envision is a health care provider.

Patients are resisting visiting hospitals due to fear of contracting covid-19. The business result is reduced revenue.
To manage this financial crisis, Envison is cutting back hours, bonuses and staff to meet the terms of the management contracts within the CLO. To state the obvious these are the very hospitals required to managed covid-19 and offer any non covid-19 media service.

This series of events has gone largely un-noticed while the massive Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US Fed is deployed. But we know one way this can end – think Sept 2008 and Lehman Brothers.

Due to their “expertise” in the space, the likes of KKR sell the product (the CLO) and earn fees as CLO managers.

Norinchukin Bank, Japan’s largest agricultural lender

There is another twist to this story. During the lead up to the 2008 banking crisis a trigger point was a failed loan payment between US and France.

On August 7, 2007 the French bank BNP Paribas halted withdrawals from its three investment funds and suspended calculation of their net asset values

KKR received much of their financing from Norinchukin Bank, and agricultural bank in Japan that is punching way above its weight. Its primmer customers are small local farmers who rely on the bank for deposit and loan services.

Could Norinchukin Bank be the next trigger point.

Written by Colin Henderson

May 13, 2020 at 07:41

Posted in Uncategorized

HM Government – Lockdown – “Our Plan to Rebuild”


Boris Johnson received a lot of criticism following release of this document yesterday.  I would suggest that this is a well written business document, and while it may not be something 99% of the population would take the time to read, for the 1% the document provides a business oriented history and timeline of the lockdown process and a way out.

Now the way out is open to debate, but it is a roadmap with clear targets and measurable actions.

FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110522-_comp

Written by Colin Henderson

May 12, 2020 at 07:31

Posted in Uncategorized

US Fed Balance sheet almost doubles in May 2020


Here is the US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet comparing pre and post 2008 Banking crisis on the left then the Covid-19 impact on the right.  These numbers are in Trillions of US dollars.

The big news is the $3 trillion growth in May 2020, and almost doubling (92.5% growth).  This is important because of the relative size of the US economy compared to other world economies.

As the Fed performs its market operations generally referred to as Quantitative Easing the Fed Balance Sheet is the result.  The US Government has bought or taken over debt from Banks, corporations, and government related institutions and taken on that liability into the name of US taxpayers.

Summary

  • pre 2008 Crisis: $1Tn
  • post 2008 crisis $2Tn
  • QE 2009 – 2020 $4Tn
  • immediately pre Covid-19 $4Tn
  • current May 2020 $7Tn

in summary the balance sheet is now $6 Tn higher than pre 2008 Banking crisis.

Fed BS 2020-05-10

Written by Colin Henderson

May 11, 2020 at 07:22

Posted in Uncategorized

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